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UK Growth Facing Uphill Battle As Further Interest Rate Cuts Loom

UK Growth Uphill as BOE set to lower interest rates amid slowdown
© Simon Stratford

The current state of the UK economy is marked by high inflation, interest rate cuts, and a persistent cost-of-living crisis, creating a challenging environment for households and businesses. This contrasts sharply with Europe, where the European Central Bank has recently reduced interest rates, aiming to boost growth amidst slowing inflation.

In the UK, inflation rose to 2.2% in July 2024, marking the first increase in months, and causing concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Despite this rise, the Bank of England made a cautious interest rate cut from 5.25% to 5% in August, the first reduction in four years. However, the bank remains wary of cutting rates too quickly, as inflationary pressures still linger, particularly in the services sector, and wage growth continues to push prices upward. While energy prices have stabilised, other factors, such as strong pay growth and tight labour markets, are keeping inflation stubbornly high.

The cost-of-living crisis is still a significant concern for many in the UK. The combination of higher mortgage rates, rising energy bills, and persistent food price inflation continues to strain household budgets. Even though wage growth is outpacing inflation, giving some relief, the sharp rise in borrowing costs over the last few years has left many struggling with mortgage repayments. Around six million households have seen their mortgage payments increase substantially, and many will face refinancing in the coming years, keeping financial pressures high.

In contrast, Europe’s more aggressive interest rate cuts reflect the region’s slowing inflation and economic stagnation. The European Central Bank’s decision aims to encourage lending and stimulate growth across the Eurozone, where inflation has fallen more sharply. This divergence in monetary policy highlights the more prolonged and complex inflationary environment in the UK, where inflationary pressures, particularly in wages and services, remain more entrenched.

While the UK economy continues to grow modestly, it remains weaker than many other advanced economies, with the Bank of England predicting sluggish growth for the foreseeable future. The cost-of-living crisis, coupled with higher borrowing costs, will likely keep economic recovery uneven, despite modest gains in some sectors.

Source: Britain Daily