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UK economic activity shows mixed signals as autumn budget approaches

UK economy state september 2024
© Chan Lee

Economic indicators for September 2024 suggest a varied picture for the UK economy, with fluctuations in employment, business turnover, and consumer spending.

The number of online job adverts increased in the first week of September, returning to levels seen in early August 2024. However, the volume remains 12% lower than the same period last year, indicating ongoing challenges in the labour market, according to Adzuna data.

Businesses also reported mixed results according to the latest ONS figures. About 26% of firms experienced a decline in turnover in August 2024 compared to July, while 14% reported an increase, and the majority (53%) saw no change. These figures are in line with recent trends, according to the Business Insights and Conditions Survey.

Consumer spending patterns revealed further shifts. Data from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) showed a 1% year-on-year growth in fuel demand for the week ending 1 September. At the same time, fuel prices dropped by 6% compared to the previous year, reflecting easing inflationary pressures on energy costs.

Despite this, cost-of-living concerns persist. Between 7 August and 1 September, most UK residents said their living costs had either risen or remained unchanged compared to the previous month. Over 90% of respondents to the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey reported increased food costs, while half faced higher energy bills. Additionally, nearly 30% of adults expressed concerns about affording an unexpected £850 expense, a rise from 25% in July.

Energy prices presented a mixed picture. Gas prices fell by 1% in the week to 8 September, while electricity prices surged by 16%, according to data from National Gas Transmission and Elexon. Meanwhile, the daily average number of UK flights dropped by 1% compared to the previous week but remained 2% higher than the same week in 2023.

These figures highlight the ongoing uncertainty and uneven recovery in the UK economy as it navigates fluctuating demand and inflationary pressures.

Source: The Britonian